Name: NAJARA BARROS DIAS
Publication date: 29/04/2020
Advisor:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| RODRIGO RANDOW DE FREITAS | Advisor * |
Examining board:
| Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| DANIEL DA CUNHA RIBEIRO | Internal Examiner * |
| RENATO DO NASCIMENTO SIQUEIRA | External Examiner * |
| RODRIGO RANDOW DE FREITAS | Advisor * |
Summary: As a result of the increase in the consumption of biofuels in recent years, the direct reflection of the concern is growing in relation to environmental issues, the biodiesel, renewable fuel can be produced from a variety of sources including edible and non-edible vegetable oils, residual frying oil (RFO) and animal fats. Thus, the present study had as main objective, to evaluate the expansion of the consumption of biodiesel in the Brazilian market, relating the reduction of pollutant emissions in the system and the social sustainability, through the verification of the impact of the economic incentive programs and existing policies and diversification of raw materials. To accomplish this the System Dynamics (SD) method will be used, since it allows us to analyze changes in variables of a system that behave differently over time. A model that adequately represents this complex sector is being developed. From it will be carried out simulations in specific parameters to evaluate the impact in the modification of the system over time. For this, a model was elaborated that adequately represents this complex sector. Initially, the relationships between variables were structured using a cause and effect diagram and later a stock and flow diagram was prepared. From it, simulations were carried out divided into 5 submodels, using specific parameters and within a ten-year horizon between 2020-2029, to assess the impact on the modification of the system over time. The simulations were evaluated and it was noticed that the increase in the percentage of biofuel, decreases the dependence on petroleum diesel, but for this the Brazilian installed production capacity needs to be expanded in all simulated scenarios. The increase in the percentage of mixing may reflect an increase in the adoption of diesel vehicles, according to a sub-model based on the Bass Diffusion. With regard to emissions, Scenario B20, for example, avoids 17.1% of CO2 in emissions in relation to that projected by the government - B15 and 22.9% in relation to the stagnant scenario - B12. With regard to raw materials, increasing the percentage of participation of the ORF and animal fat, reduces the costs of producing biodiesel and reduces employment in family farming from soybean cultivation. In this way, the present dissertation contributed with a base model for the analysis of factors that interfere in the biodiesel market in Brazil and for reducing part of the gap found in the literature.
