Name: THIAGO SENATORE MORILA
Publication date: 29/07/2021
Advisor:
Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| DANIEL DA CUNHA RIBEIRO | Advisor * |
Examining board:
| Name |
Role |
|---|---|
| DANIEL DA CUNHA RIBEIRO | Advisor * |
| EDNILSON SILVA FELIPE | External Examiner * |
| GISELE DE LORENA DINIZ CHAVES | Internal Examiner * |
| MARIELCE DE CASSIA RIBEIRO TOSTA | Internal Examiner * |
Summary: Electric energy is a common good necessary for the development of society, as all
technology depends on its use. In this context, two important parameters allow
analyzing the electric power generation sector: safety and diversity. Safety measures
the system s ability to meet demand while diversity studies the participation of different
fuel sources in total generation. These two parameters will be evaluated according to
the costs involved in using the following energy sources: solar, hydraulic, wind,
biomass, coal, fuel oil, diesel, natural and nuclear gas. For this evaluation, the System
Dynamics (SD) technique will be used WHERE the relationships between input
parameters (generation capacity, depreciation, operating time and costs of energy
sources) and output (safety and diversity) are related through mathematical models and
solved with the aid of the Vensim PLE 8.1.0 software. 20 Scenarios are proposed with
two different horizons: ability to accomplish what is planned; replacement of natural gas
by another source. Being quantified by the total cost of energy generation as well as
security and diversity of the system in order to compare each scenario. For the
replacement scenarios are proposed in which each of the renewable sources (solar,
wind, hydroelectric, biomass) absorb the increase in the capacity of natural gas. The
results of the model show that it is possible to maintain near or even better levels of
safety with lower costs in substitution scenarios, for example considering the planned
growth for the sector, the scenario that substitutes gas for solar energy has a cost of BR
99.35 while replacing with wind energy costs BR 140.27 less than expected. The
main contribution of the work was to implement a computational tool to aid decision
making on the issue of increasing the use of thermoelectric plants.
